1. Is sustained weeding effort a successful long-term restoration strategy?

1a. How does total exotic percent cover change with time since restoration?

Hypothesis: If sustained weeding (routine weed-whacking, monthly hand-weeding) is successful, total exotic cover will remain low.

Results: Significant increase in total exotic percent cover after year 4 – due to increase in exotics in transition and upland zones.

1b. How does exotic diversity change with time since restoration?

Hypothesis: If sustained weeding (routine weed-whacking, monthly hand-weeding) is successful, exotic diversity will remain low.

Results: No significant change in Shannon’s Index of exotic community.

1c. Is there a threshold (# of years) after which exotic abundance increases?

Hypothesis: We will see increased exotic species percent cover and diversity with increased time since restoration due to reinvasion.

1d. Do pools converge on the same exotic community composition over time?

Hypothesis: Pools that are restored in the same way will converge on the same exotic community over time.

Results: Sig difference in exotic community across age (perMANOVA p = 0.001) – community changes at year 4

## Square root transformation
## Wisconsin double standardization
## Run 0 stress 0.0001864372 
## Run 1 stress 0.000184144 
## ... New best solution
## ... Procrustes: rmse 5.377238e-05  max resid 0.0005529006 
## ... Similar to previous best
## Run 2 stress 0.0002093255 
## ... Procrustes: rmse 5.982336e-05  max resid 0.0006651 
## ... Similar to previous best
## Run 3 stress 0.0001956403 
## ... Procrustes: rmse 0.000112022  max resid 0.001602033 
## ... Similar to previous best
## Run 4 stress 0.0002276889 
## ... Procrustes: rmse 0.0001115538  max resid 0.001259826 
## ... Similar to previous best
## Run 5 stress 0.000212425 
## ... Procrustes: rmse 0.0001203533  max resid 0.001875222 
## ... Similar to previous best
## Run 6 stress 0.0002058182 
## ... Procrustes: rmse 0.0001546946  max resid 0.002090096 
## ... Similar to previous best
## Run 7 stress 0.0001995622 
## ... Procrustes: rmse 0.0001499609  max resid 0.002636906 
## ... Similar to previous best
## Run 8 stress 0.0002042074 
## ... Procrustes: rmse 0.0001002123  max resid 0.001403407 
## ... Similar to previous best
## Run 9 stress 0.0002254107 
## ... Procrustes: rmse 0.0001256574  max resid 0.001963004 
## ... Similar to previous best
## Run 10 stress 0.0002213969 
## ... Procrustes: rmse 0.0001653594  max resid 0.002577198 
## ... Similar to previous best
## Run 11 stress 0.0002495504 
## ... Procrustes: rmse 0.0001477543  max resid 0.002536862 
## ... Similar to previous best
## Run 12 stress 0.0001785634 
## ... New best solution
## ... Procrustes: rmse 0.0001086942  max resid 0.001161614 
## ... Similar to previous best
## Run 13 stress 0.0002448355 
## ... Procrustes: rmse 0.0001060245  max resid 0.001636889 
## ... Similar to previous best
## Run 14 stress 0.0001881265 
## ... Procrustes: rmse 0.0001240455  max resid 0.001461872 
## ... Similar to previous best
## Run 15 stress 0.0002333175 
## ... Procrustes: rmse 0.0001239868  max resid 0.001293798 
## ... Similar to previous best
## Run 16 stress 0.0002307857 
## ... Procrustes: rmse 0.0001129936  max resid 0.001118676 
## ... Similar to previous best
## Run 17 stress 0.0002028041 
## ... Procrustes: rmse 0.0001202232  max resid 0.001226553 
## ... Similar to previous best
## Run 18 stress 0.000235433 
## ... Procrustes: rmse 0.0001596805  max resid 0.002558182 
## ... Similar to previous best
## Run 19 stress 0.0001990579 
## ... Procrustes: rmse 7.610122e-05  max resid 0.000791918 
## ... Similar to previous best
## Run 20 stress 0.0002206464 
## ... Procrustes: rmse 8.617875e-05  max resid 0.001184003 
## ... Similar to previous best
## *** Solution reached

1e. Is the whole community changing?

Hypothesis: If restoration was successful, then the community should be in stable equilibrium.

Results: Sig difference in community across age (perMANOVA p = 0.001) – community changes at year 6

## Square root transformation
## Wisconsin double standardization
## Run 0 stress 0.1907515 
## Run 1 stress 0.1858569 
## ... New best solution
## ... Procrustes: rmse 0.02924576  max resid 0.07578028 
## Run 2 stress 0.1907457 
## Run 3 stress 0.1843139 
## ... New best solution
## ... Procrustes: rmse 0.004052238  max resid 0.08871877 
## Run 4 stress 0.1896299 
## Run 5 stress 0.185432 
## Run 6 stress 0.185868 
## Run 7 stress 0.1858637 
## Run 8 stress 0.184315 
## ... Procrustes: rmse 0.0002925339  max resid 0.002221162 
## ... Similar to previous best
## Run 9 stress 0.1858676 
## Run 10 stress 0.1844624 
## ... Procrustes: rmse 0.00275123  max resid 0.06375882 
## Run 11 stress 0.1843154 
## ... Procrustes: rmse 0.0002134502  max resid 0.0009379104 
## ... Similar to previous best
## Run 12 stress 0.1870448 
## Run 13 stress 0.1859742 
## Run 14 stress 0.1857551 
## Run 15 stress 0.1843148 
## ... Procrustes: rmse 0.0002626508  max resid 0.002098613 
## ... Similar to previous best
## Run 16 stress 0.1872596 
## Run 17 stress 0.1844731 
## ... Procrustes: rmse 0.003130806  max resid 0.0639131 
## Run 18 stress 0.1844637 
## ... Procrustes: rmse 0.002740992  max resid 0.06366775 
## Run 19 stress 0.1858307 
## Run 20 stress 0.1896149 
## *** Solution reached

1f. Is the native community changing?

Hypothesis: If restoration methods are the same, pools will converge on the same native community.

Results: Total native percent cover stable after sig increase after year 2 (ANOVA F(7) = 5.65, p << 0.001), but Shannon’s Index of native community sig decreased after year 7 (ANOVA F(7) = 2.051, p = 0.0474)

## Square root transformation
## Wisconsin double standardization
## Run 0 stress 0.1197204 
## Run 1 stress 0.1241694 
## Run 2 stress 0.1197893 
## ... Procrustes: rmse 0.00225219  max resid 0.03715035 
## Run 3 stress 0.1198432 
## ... Procrustes: rmse 0.00281424  max resid 0.03708603 
## Run 4 stress 0.1247024 
## Run 5 stress 0.1231186 
## Run 6 stress 0.1203201 
## Run 7 stress 0.1211953 
## Run 8 stress 0.1199772 
## ... Procrustes: rmse 0.003936449  max resid 0.06951252 
## Run 9 stress 0.1246541 
## Run 10 stress 0.1211758 
## Run 11 stress 0.1205968 
## Run 12 stress 0.1206919 
## Run 13 stress 0.1199619 
## ... Procrustes: rmse 0.003859336  max resid 0.06837908 
## Run 14 stress 0.1211688 
## Run 15 stress 0.1202538 
## Run 16 stress 0.1212268 
## Run 17 stress 0.1206547 
## Run 18 stress 0.120291 
## Run 19 stress 0.1197455 
## ... Procrustes: rmse 0.001900366  max resid 0.03699049 
## Run 20 stress 0.1197739 
## ... Procrustes: rmse 0.00234094  max resid 0.03714813 
## Run 21 stress 0.1203201 
## Run 22 stress 0.119962 
## ... Procrustes: rmse 0.003848067  max resid 0.06817717 
## Run 23 stress 0.1202916 
## Run 24 stress 0.121032 
## Run 25 stress 0.1205115 
## Run 26 stress 0.1239853 
## Run 27 stress 0.1196961 
## ... New best solution
## ... Procrustes: rmse 0.0008822671  max resid 0.0138075 
## Run 28 stress 0.120606 
## Run 29 stress 0.1205949 
## Run 30 stress 0.1246865 
## Run 31 stress 0.1235618 
## Run 32 stress 0.1199619 
## ... Procrustes: rmse 0.003695425  max resid 0.06693519 
## Run 33 stress 0.1207363 
## Run 34 stress 0.1199482 
## ... Procrustes: rmse 0.003615816  max resid 0.06877055 
## Run 35 stress 0.1210192 
## Run 36 stress 0.1257572 
## Run 37 stress 0.1210556 
## Run 38 stress 0.1210243 
## Run 39 stress 0.1246592 
## Run 40 stress 0.1202546 
## Run 41 stress 0.1203861 
## Run 42 stress 0.120268 
## Run 43 stress 0.1205169 
## Run 44 stress 0.1204766 
## Run 45 stress 0.1211012 
## Run 46 stress 0.1203179 
## Run 47 stress 0.1240767 
## Run 48 stress 0.1197708 
## ... Procrustes: rmse 0.00205529  max resid 0.03622863 
## Run 49 stress 0.1196959 
## ... New best solution
## ... Procrustes: rmse 0.0001153003  max resid 0.001722594 
## ... Similar to previous best
## *** Solution reached

1g. How does this actively managed site compare to passive management?

Hypothesis: Actively managed site will change the community.

Results: North Parcel sig different from Del Sol communities (both overall and just exotics)

## Square root transformation
## Wisconsin double standardization
## Run 0 stress 0.1401415 
## Run 1 stress 0.1401311 
## ... New best solution
## ... Procrustes: rmse 0.001107322  max resid 0.0198583 
## Run 2 stress 0.1401323 
## ... Procrustes: rmse 0.0007482939  max resid 0.01591015 
## Run 3 stress 0.140132 
## ... Procrustes: rmse 0.0006930573  max resid 0.01601142 
## Run 4 stress 0.1401419 
## ... Procrustes: rmse 0.00108644  max resid 0.02001116 
## Run 5 stress 0.1401327 
## ... Procrustes: rmse 0.0008035157  max resid 0.01615982 
## Run 6 stress 0.1401321 
## ... Procrustes: rmse 0.0008269561  max resid 0.01587324 
## Run 7 stress 0.1401313 
## ... Procrustes: rmse 0.0004398647  max resid 0.01072921 
## Run 8 stress 0.140142 
## ... Procrustes: rmse 0.001145124  max resid 0.01994285 
## Run 9 stress 0.1401327 
## ... Procrustes: rmse 0.0009372366  max resid 0.01608691 
## Run 10 stress 0.1401403 
## ... Procrustes: rmse 0.000982918  max resid 0.01995127 
## Run 11 stress 0.1401328 
## ... Procrustes: rmse 0.0006816845  max resid 0.01523473 
## Run 12 stress 0.1401422 
## ... Procrustes: rmse 0.001108029  max resid 0.02005513 
## Run 13 stress 0.1401397 
## ... Procrustes: rmse 0.0008586887  max resid 0.01986029 
## Run 14 stress 0.1401423 
## ... Procrustes: rmse 0.001093758  max resid 0.02007438 
## Run 15 stress 0.1401327 
## ... Procrustes: rmse 0.0008607462  max resid 0.01596025 
## Run 16 stress 0.1401325 
## ... Procrustes: rmse 0.0006628308  max resid 0.01497425 
## Run 17 stress 0.1401317 
## ... Procrustes: rmse 0.0004933025  max resid 0.01099559 
## Run 18 stress 0.140142 
## ... Procrustes: rmse 0.001027605  max resid 0.01994061 
## Run 19 stress 0.1401321 
## ... Procrustes: rmse 0.0007986711  max resid 0.01595719 
## Run 20 stress 0.140132 
## ... Procrustes: rmse 0.0006945059  max resid 0.01588817 
## Run 21 stress 0.1401402 
## ... Procrustes: rmse 0.0009955418  max resid 0.01979133 
## Run 22 stress 0.1401329 
## ... Procrustes: rmse 0.0009982332  max resid 0.01721453 
## Run 23 stress 0.1401402 
## ... Procrustes: rmse 0.0009211767  max resid 0.01994595 
## Run 24 stress 0.1401399 
## ... Procrustes: rmse 0.0008831134  max resid 0.01991256 
## Run 25 stress 0.1401419 
## ... Procrustes: rmse 0.001150238  max resid 0.01991505 
## Run 26 stress 0.1401425 
## ... Procrustes: rmse 0.00107039  max resid 0.02014005 
## Run 27 stress 0.1401395 
## ... Procrustes: rmse 0.0008527935  max resid 0.01982877 
## Run 28 stress 0.1401414 
## ... Procrustes: rmse 0.001032884  max resid 0.01977752 
## Run 29 stress 0.1401311 
## ... New best solution
## ... Procrustes: rmse 0.0001588399  max resid 0.003727888 
## ... Similar to previous best
## *** Solution reached

## Square root transformation
## Wisconsin double standardization
## Run 0 stress 0.0002493451 
## Run 1 stress 0.0002841956 
## ... Procrustes: rmse 0.0001103788  max resid 0.001296303 
## ... Similar to previous best
## Run 2 stress 0.0003022943 
## ... Procrustes: rmse 0.000129485  max resid 0.002471316 
## ... Similar to previous best
## Run 3 stress 0.0003231765 
## ... Procrustes: rmse 0.0001702279  max resid 0.002918764 
## ... Similar to previous best
## Run 4 stress 0.0003180298 
## ... Procrustes: rmse 5.691461e-05  max resid 0.0009782168 
## ... Similar to previous best
## Run 5 stress 0.000286367 
## ... Procrustes: rmse 0.0001147278  max resid 0.001856099 
## ... Similar to previous best
## Run 6 stress 0.0002898696 
## ... Procrustes: rmse 0.0001267309  max resid 0.00152459 
## ... Similar to previous best
## Run 7 stress 0.0002570556 
## ... Procrustes: rmse 0.0001351242  max resid 0.001806286 
## ... Similar to previous best
## Run 8 stress 0.000260657 
## ... Procrustes: rmse 0.0001214355  max resid 0.002301776 
## ... Similar to previous best
## Run 9 stress 0.0002877153 
## ... Procrustes: rmse 0.0001954739  max resid 0.003293107 
## ... Similar to previous best
## Run 10 stress 0.0003060899 
## ... Procrustes: rmse 0.0001196231  max resid 0.001871749 
## ... Similar to previous best
## Run 11 stress 0.0003049968 
## ... Procrustes: rmse 0.0001496381  max resid 0.001768571 
## ... Similar to previous best
## Run 12 stress 0.0002601321 
## ... Procrustes: rmse 0.0001038769  max resid 0.001714372 
## ... Similar to previous best
## Run 13 stress 0.000277639 
## ... Procrustes: rmse 0.0001199066  max resid 0.002263373 
## ... Similar to previous best
## Run 14 stress 0.0002548202 
## ... Procrustes: rmse 9.909989e-05  max resid 0.001421062 
## ... Similar to previous best
## Run 15 stress 0.0002819766 
## ... Procrustes: rmse 0.0001422238  max resid 0.002634531 
## ... Similar to previous best
## Run 16 stress 0.0002904094 
## ... Procrustes: rmse 0.0001896333  max resid 0.003173634 
## ... Similar to previous best
## Run 17 stress 0.00028421 
## ... Procrustes: rmse 0.0001211025  max resid 0.001802961 
## ... Similar to previous best
## Run 18 stress 0.0003206458 
## ... Procrustes: rmse 7.848318e-05  max resid 0.0009273177 
## ... Similar to previous best
## Run 19 stress 0.0002456235 
## ... New best solution
## ... Procrustes: rmse 0.0001183915  max resid 0.002248831 
## ... Similar to previous best
## Run 20 stress 0.0002981289 
## ... Procrustes: rmse 8.265261e-05  max resid 0.001498218 
## ... Similar to previous best
## *** Solution reached

2. What environmental filters can be manipulated to decrease exotics?

2a. How does the seedbank compare to the aboveground cover?

H1: If exotic species are coming up in above-ground monitoring that are not found in below-ground seedbank diversity, then seeds are blowing in from surrounding invaded matrix. H2: If native species are in the seedbank but are not found in above-ground monitoring, then an environmental filter is preventing them from germinating, despite sustained weeding effort.

Results: Exotic seedbank communities sig different from exotic above-ground communities (perMANOVA p = 0.001)

## Run 0 stress 0.000232349 
## Run 1 stress 0.0002310696 
## ... New best solution
## ... Procrustes: rmse 0.0001161335  max resid 0.001185164 
## ... Similar to previous best
## Run 2 stress 0.0002518001 
## ... Procrustes: rmse 0.000105536  max resid 0.001276299 
## ... Similar to previous best
## Run 3 stress 0.0002637263 
## ... Procrustes: rmse 7.691933e-05  max resid 0.001144966 
## ... Similar to previous best
## Run 4 stress 0.0002894571 
## ... Procrustes: rmse 0.0001495839  max resid 0.002650403 
## ... Similar to previous best
## Run 5 stress 0.0002356159 
## ... Procrustes: rmse 0.0001206883  max resid 0.002072162 
## ... Similar to previous best
## Run 6 stress 0.0002711427 
## ... Procrustes: rmse 0.0001335485  max resid 0.001394735 
## ... Similar to previous best
## Run 7 stress 0.0002479785 
## ... Procrustes: rmse 5.795566e-05  max resid 0.0007311631 
## ... Similar to previous best
## Run 8 stress 0.0001822588 
## ... New best solution
## ... Procrustes: rmse 7.159896e-05  max resid 0.0008396544 
## ... Similar to previous best
## Run 9 stress 0.0002188207 
## ... Procrustes: rmse 8.004182e-05  max resid 0.001414145 
## ... Similar to previous best
## Run 10 stress 0.0002037738 
## ... Procrustes: rmse 8.734779e-05  max resid 0.001002081 
## ... Similar to previous best
## Run 11 stress 0.0002638593 
## ... Procrustes: rmse 0.000165405  max resid 0.002303726 
## ... Similar to previous best
## Run 12 stress 0.0002442366 
## ... Procrustes: rmse 5.24982e-05  max resid 0.0005884671 
## ... Similar to previous best
## Run 13 stress 0.000273728 
## ... Procrustes: rmse 0.0001177254  max resid 0.00170302 
## ... Similar to previous best
## Run 14 stress 0.0002885023 
## ... Procrustes: rmse 8.183795e-05  max resid 0.00107999 
## ... Similar to previous best
## Run 15 stress 0.000251111 
## ... Procrustes: rmse 8.843534e-05  max resid 0.001282896 
## ... Similar to previous best
## Run 16 stress 0.0002322918 
## ... Procrustes: rmse 0.0001144891  max resid 0.001331779 
## ... Similar to previous best
## Run 17 stress 0.0002284091 
## ... Procrustes: rmse 6.965175e-05  max resid 0.0007427598 
## ... Similar to previous best
## Run 18 stress 0.0002206368 
## ... Procrustes: rmse 9.248364e-05  max resid 0.001301657 
## ... Similar to previous best
## Run 19 stress 0.0002502509 
## ... Procrustes: rmse 0.0001309073  max resid 0.00139811 
## ... Similar to previous best
## Run 20 stress 0.000229519 
## ... Procrustes: rmse 0.0001394879  max resid 0.002065993 
## ... Similar to previous best
## *** Solution reached

2b. Does active management result in a different exotic community?